The Melbourne Cup Guide

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Interesting post over at racenet.com.au on comments from the beaten Jockey’s

“I’m sorry guys I’ll talk to you later, not now,” a tearful Corey Brown after being denied a Melbourne Cup by the narrowest of margins on Bauer.

Not even a consoling hug and words of praise from managing owner Simon O’Donnell, could ease Brown’s disappointment.

“We had no luck getting out at the right time, he ran terrific, maybe he should have won, I don’t know,” Brett Prebble, rider of C’est la Guerre (3rd).

“We got held up in patches but once he got a clear run, he charged home, a very good effort,” Vlad Duric, rider of Master O’Reilly (4th).

“She might have felt the ground a bit and it might have come a bit early for her, she’ll be much better next year,” Glen Boss, rider of Profound Beauty (5th).

“He actually pulled a bit early so we found ourselves closer to the speed than I wanted to be, he ran great but he set it up for the winner,” Clare Lindop, rider of Moatize (6th).

“I’m not completely sure he stayed the trip,” Damien Oliver, rider of Mad Rush (7th).

“Not bad but the ground may been a bit hard for him,” Jeff Lloyd rider of Nom du Jeu (8th).

“He ran well, maybe should have finished a touch closer but not disgraced,” Danny Nikolic, rider of Zipping (9th).

“He ran about up to what he can do, a pleasing effort,” Chris Symons, rider of Newport (10th).

“Just not good enough today,” Michael Rodd, rider of Ice Chariot (11th).

“He ran okay, that was about as good as he could have went,” Craig Newitt, rider of Guyno (12th).

“I don’t know about two miles for him,” Steven King, rider of Littorio (13th).

“About her level,” Craig Williams, rider of Varevees (14th).

“Every chance, didn’t get the trip,” Greg Childs, rider of Boundless (15th).

“He did his best but maybe he’ll be better next year,” Nick Hall, rider of Red Lord (16th).

“Outclassed,” Mark Sweeney, rider of Prize Lady (17th)

“Maybe we brought the wrong horse, he was out of it as soon as we turned for home, no real excuses,” Johnny Murtagh, rider of Septimus (18th).

“Didn’t stay,” Steven Baster, rider of Barbaricus (19th).

Wayne Lordan, the rider of the 20th placegetter Alessandro Volta, could only offer a smug little smile to the waiting media as he sauntered past the scales.

Perhaps his smug grin is an indication that he was satisfied with the job he did on Alessandro Volta for his employers.

“We went from travelling well to struggling in two strides,” Colm O’Donoghue, rider of Honolulu (21st).

“He couldn’t breathe at the 1000 so I had to pull him up,” James Winks, rider of Gallopin who failed to finish the Melbourne Cup.

Melbourne Cup 2008 race replay. I am not sure how many readers are going to watch this given the upset result and I am sure that the folks on Bauer don’t really want to re-live the horror over and over again. I however will keep watching it again and again just to see Septimus fall flat on it’s face.

Enjoy

Viewed wins the $5.5 Million 2008 Melbourne Cup giving Bart Cummings his 12th win and 250th Group 1 and jockey Blake Shinn his first Melbourne Cup.  Viewed managed to hold onto a nose margin over the fast finishing Bauer who has just narrowly missed repeating Media Puzzle’s 2002 triumph.

The race was run at a ridiclous tempo with the Adian Obrien trio true to their word of pushing the pace out in front by the time the field turned form home both Septimus and Alessandro Volta where clearly struggling and Honolulu had already drifted off the pace all together.  They all finished embarrassingly for what they set out to achieve with Honolulu last, Alessandro Volta 20th and Septimuis 18th.  For the ‘greatest’ stayer in the world, well pfft, never had it never will.

Not that I can really talk I guess my picks of Littorio, Boundless, Perfound Beauty and Littorio were never really in it. For the record Gallopin did not finish out the race.  For my main chance Littorio the race was not run to suit, as it was for the vast majority of the field.  This is the first time in some time that I have not had a place gettor for the Cup.  Never mind I am sure that I am not alone, the first 4 in NSW paid $500K and the trifecta was close to $80K.

But thankfully in our poll, of who would win the Cup, we had 11 readers select Viewed as the winner, so hopefully you backed that up with a huge collect!

So, where did you horse finish?

Moatize gets Bart another runner in the Cup with a classic win in the Saab Quality. Winning Jockey Micahel Rodd said that you should never under estimate the Cups Kings, Bart Cummings and that Moatize will run out the two miles and only carrying 50kgs will be a massive chance to win.

Saab Quality

As for my chance Littorio, I was happy with his run, he was never really going to win and this was simply another hit out before the Cup. Interestingly in the race, Littorio gets 1 hit of the whip from Steven King at the 300m mark and that is all, whereas Newitt on Princess Coup was pounding the crap out of her and Littorio was still moving along well at the line and had a lot left in the tank. I was happy with the $16 on offer Saturday before the race and now will be taking the $31, I still think it is the best chance of the race. Barrier 17 will be no issue it will get back and wait for the straight and power home.

As for the Mackinnon, what a finish, Theseo by the closest of margins.

From, www.racingandsports/racing
Ice Chariot 5th– made some nice ground from the rear, his last 600 of 33.89 seconds is perfectly satisfactory for Tuesday.

Littorio 8th– Got back near last and on face value was average but his last 600 of 33.70 was good enough to suggest that the run in the Mackinnon is best forgotten. (ed - Simply a hit out as per trainer comments before the race in various press)

Mackinnon Stakes Replay

All The Good will need a miricle to make the Melbourne Cup field Tuesday 4th November, with trainer Saeed Bin Suroor reporting that there was no improvement on it’s foreleg leg this morning at Sandown.

At the moment my top 4 for the Melbourne Cup is:

All The Good
Profound Beauty
Gollopin
Littorio

Previously, it was:

All The Good
Sirmione
Profound Beauty
Littorio

If All The Good comes out as expected and with the Saab Quality still to be run, we are looking at

Profound Beauty
Gollopin
Littorio
Boundless

This will more then likely be my top four, I have rated Profound Beauty since it came out a G.Boss got on. Gollopin has been consistant in it’s runs and more importantly times, 18 starts for 8 wins and I think at $26 /$6 is great value. Boundless is has posted some good runs and is a great rough hope,

But the one that I really like at the odds is Littorio who has really come under the radar I think from it’s 5th in the Caulfield Cup. Everyone has been talking about Mad Rush and the way it finished, which was impressive, but Oliver sat back had a rails run and raced for luck through the middle. Littorio was 2 wide most of the race and 3-4 wide at the turn going around the likes of Ice Chariot, and still came home strongly, doing all the hard work.

Littorio is in form and a top quality horse, it has beaten Weekend Hussler, anyone recall this horse. People were talking about it taking all three major Spring races, Cox and both Cups, but was found out that it could not stay. But Littorio has proven to be able to stay, winning at 2000m, and 5th in the Caulfield Cup. It has also had a 3rd in the Australian Derby over 2400m which was won by …Nom Du Jeu, the current melbournecupguide.com readers choice.

There used to be a theory that the Melbourne Cup horse had to race on the Saturday, Derby Day, but has not really held true over the last number of years. Well we’ll get a look at Littorio this weekend racing in the Mackinnon, the last to race on the Saturday and win was Brew in 2000. It finished 2nd to Yippyio (Who then finished 2nd in the Melbourne Cup) in the Moonee Valley Cup, Brew qualified for the Melbourne Cup by winning the The Dalgety on Derby Day.

So again my top 4, each way Gollopin and Boundless, something on Profound Beauty to cover, but most of my hard earned will be on Littorio.

Profound Beauty
Gollopin
Littorio
Boundless

Varevees, the French, English trained, Australian owned mare will be racing in the colours of Archer. Rick Jamieson the owner of Varevees has the rights to the colours carried by Archer, the winner of the first two Melbourne Cups. Surprisingly the colours had been unregistereted for years and Jamieson inquired about them, simply listed as “Black”.

Not 100% sure about Varevees’ chances in the Melbourne Cup, it has beaten Yeats, but interestingly if we go back to 2007 form, it ran 1 mile, 7 furlongs + 110 yards (3118 meters) in 3:15:00, now that would put it in Makybe Diva 2003, 2005 territory probably only losing by a nose or short neck. I am however very suspicious is this time is correct as only 3 months before over 3100 it ran 3:39.10 both on good tracks…pretty massive improvement

Ice Chariot just keeps making the headlines, albeit on this occasion kind of funny. A horse after my own heart perhaps

The four-legged vacuum Ice Chariot from Racing and Sports

The four-legged vacuum Ice Chariot will be lining up for the third consecutive Saturday in the SAAB Quality, not because he needs to qualify for next week’s Melbourne Cup but because he needs the run.

Trainer Ron Maund termed the six-year-old as such on his eating ability, especially now he’s based in a quarter acre paddock at Corinella, obliviously to French Island across the bay as he has his head in the clover.

After a somewhat luckless effort in the Caulfield Cup when eighth after being shuffled right back Maund expected the gelding to back up and go close in the Moonee Valley Cup.

He placed behind Gallopin, beaten 2.5 lengths, but the trainer was still disappointed in the run and felt the gross gelding had “gotten away”.

“To my dismay after running such a good race in the Caulfield Cup a week earlier he pulled up like a fat puppy,” Maund told Radio 4TAB.

“We’ve come to the conclusion that he’s overdone the country lifestyle on the lush Corinella clover and rye grass.

“He’s like a vacuum when he gets on the grass and won’t lift his head.”

Maund said it took Ice Chariot an age to recover from his Moonee Valley run and feels he needs another this weekend to be at his top for the Melbourne Cup.

Ice Chariot qualified for the 2006 Melbourne Cup by winning the Queensland Derby but could manage only 22nd behind Delta Blues.

But Maund said typical of the Semipalatinsk breed he has continued to improve with age and is racing in career best form.

This time in he finished third in the Theo Marks Stakes, Shannon Stakes and Craven Plate before his Caulfield Cup eighth then last weekend’s placing.

He is fully qualified for the Cup, sitting 17th in order of entry, where he has 53kg.

I have just finished watching all of Septimus’ races and while I am kind of impressed with his wins, settles well etc, there is pretty much always a very solid pace out front which he may not get next Tuesday. Also while watching the GNER Doncaster Cup 14th September 2007, I noticed a few previous Melbourne Cup runners and they should ring a few bells with you also. Well, maybe not, unless you keep tabs on the horses that finish 20 lengths from the winner of the Melbourne Cup.

GEORDIELAND, 2006 Melbourne Cup, beaten by Delta Blues to the tune of 26.3L and 18th of 23 (yes I also note that Ice Chariot was 2nd last.)

However, that is not the point I actually want to make, Geordieland, then went onto win 26th May 2008, after 7 months off 1st up over 2800m beating home, Honolulu who was 4th also resuming.

Honolulu then wins Alexandra Stakes over 4345m by 1.5L over Distinction….wait for it…then gets pumped over 3200m by 20 lengths to Yeats Goodwood Cup 31st July over the Melbourne Cup distance of 3200…Tungsten Strike 2nd…anyone recall him..only lost by 54lengths to Efficient last year!

DISTINCTION, 2005 Melbourne Cup, beaten by Makybe Diva to the tune of 20L and 19th, but is still running around the UK beating the likes of Honolulu and competing with Septimus.

GB - DONCASTER 14 Sep 2007
GNER DONCASTER CUP (G2) 3600m $182,590 SOT=GF
RaceT=3:48.41

FP Tb Horse wt Jockey (bp) Trainer SP
1st 8 SEPTIMUS 59.0 JOHN MURTAGH (8) A P O’BRIEN 11-10
2nd 5 GEORDIELAND 57.5 T QUEALLY (5) J A OSBORNE 7-1
3rd 6 ALLEGRETTO 57.5 FRANKIE DETTORI (6) SIR MICHAEL STOUTE 7-2
4th 4 DISTINCTION 57.5 OLIVIER PESLIER (4) SIR MICHAEL STOUTE 8-1
5th 2 FINALMENTE 57.5 RICHARD HUGHES (2) N A CALLAGHAN 14-1
6th 1 BALKAN KNIGHT 57.5 TED DURCAN (1) D R C ELSWORTH 12-1
7th 7 LAND ‘N STARS 57.5 PAUL HANAGAN (7) R A FAHEY 50-1
8th 3 BADDAM 57.5 IAN MONGAN (3) M R CHANNON 33-1

Seems to me, that yes, Spetimus can stay, but requires the pace on to make it a true staying event, so I am willing to bet that we’ll see ALESSANDRO VOLTA, out in front ensuing a solid pace to work in the favour of Septimus. Of course pace setting is common place in the UK, but illegal here in Australia, but not something that you can really prove, or at least had to do so.

Also, I have noticed a lot of 3600 - 4200 races, really long races, whereas 3200 is really at the top of our races. Septimus is not winning by big lengths in the 2800-3200 range I am starting to form the opinion Septimus is running against poor quality opposition.

Before I forget, LAND ‘N STARS Melbourne Cup 2006, beaten by Makybe Diva, to the respectable 7.5L but has not won a race since 2006 or really performed, unless you count 3rd in 5 horse races.