Bauer today booked his spot in the Melbourne Cup with an impressive win in the Group 3 $200,000 2406m Geelong Cup, Bauer beat home Moatize, Magic Instinct and the pre-race favouriate Light Vision.
Bauer is now into $24’s on betfair, you could have got $90 just 3 short weeks ago and into $15 on the NSW TAB, yes I got $90’s 
So what does this tell us besides that Australia has basically zero staying talent? Well, to point out the obvious, that the Cup will be heading overseas!
I mentioned earlier that I’d put up my current top four based on my method to tip Cup winners (well more recently Cup places) and here is it in order for who will win the Melbourne Cup in 2008
1. All The Good
2. Sirmione
3. Profound Beauty
4. Littorio
This of course could change with a number of key races to come, Sirmione will I think run very well in the Cox Plate this weekend at value and there are a number of other Melbourne Cup horses running, such as Zipping, so he could end up in this list, but it would not change to much from this
Bauer’s Geelong Cup win has it in 5th on my rankings
Reply of the Geelong Cup
October 23rd, 2008 at 8:12 am
The Caulfield Cup bias leads me to still have some reservations about All the Good though I couldn’t leave it out. I have been debating with a friend since Caulfield as to why Littorio didn’t go on. I am willing to forgive and think that he might have hit a flat spot in his prep whereas the other view is that he is best suited over 2000 (runs out 2400 + but with the same ability..)
I have been concentrating on runners who sort of defied the bias in the Caulfield Cup – Master O Reilly, Nom De Jeu and I am going back to the well on Ice Chariot. Thought that he had no luck, tried to follow the other closers and Schofield had to put the brakes on and pull it even wider and by the time he started his run there was less than 150 to go! Still finishing 4 Lenghts back is tribute to how well he ran on.
Anyway, my top four at this stage are Nom De Jeu, Master O Reilly, All the Good, Sirmione.. On the cusp are Bauer and Ice Chariot.
Are we going to see Profound Beauty or Septimus before Cup day?
October 24th, 2008 at 9:53 am
Hi Haveabowl
Thanks for contributing. Ice Chariot, we’ll see how he is going after the Moonee Valley Cup this weekend before the Cox plate, a noticed in the Daily Telegraphs and Best Bets that he has been tipped by a few people and is up in the top three for a few others. So there is at least some interest in him, not to fussed if he does not win this weekend, at $5 I won’t be on him, just looking for a real strong showing, top 4 would be good especially if he is coming home again like the Caulfield Cup.
I am probably going to get on Red Lord for the Moonee Valley Cup.
For the Cox plate, I am thinking Sirmione and Zipping for value, I cannot see Samantha Miss winning, she has been impressive for a 3 year old in Sydney, but that is against other 3 year old fillies, big step to race older horses etc…and she ain’t no Savabeel or Octagonal, come to think of it, she ain’t no Makybe Diva. The pressure really comes early in the Cox and she won’t be able to sit and sprint like she has in Sydney taking off with 300m to go. Probably will be a moderate tempo, then the heat will be applied 600m out, and given the bendy nature of Moonee Valley they will be peeling wide for runs.
I like your top 4, but I cannot take Master O’Reilly at all, Nom De Jeu certainly has the form, hence Red Lord, and Bauer would be my 5th pick.
Good Luck
October 24th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Yeah, The Moonee Valley Cup will be an interesting form race for the Melbourne Cup. Baughurst seems to me to be the fittest horse in the country right now and I think that if anything manages to gun it down over the 170m straight, then that has to be a great M Cup run!
I am hoping that it is the Chariot that does that given my early speccing of it for the Melbourne Cup. Red Lord has to be a good chance and if Largo Lad is as good as the Hayes stable propaganda machine makes it out to be then it is a show as well.
For the Cox I can’t look past Alamosa, running within 2 lengths behind the Hussler over his best trip is for me a great sign. Theseo at odds and Zarita as the on-pacer amongst the stayers if it gets out to silly odds.
My co-blogger is on me about Master O’Reilly as well.