Here it is, the big one, the $3M WS Cox Plate, the best weight for age race going round.  In what is one of the most open Cox Plates nothing will surprise come 4:30pm at Moonee Valley as you cannot put a line through to many of these runners, perhaps only Sir Slick would be would be the horse you would rule out completely.

Sir Slick will come across from the wdie gate 11 to take up the running, along with Manhattan Rain and Rock Kingdom.  I would say this is where I would rule out Manhattan Rain, having to come forward from a wide gate and take up the running over the 2040 metres wil be to much for the 3 year old.  Also, it could easily get trapped 3 wide, as the straight at MV is only 178m, so will either need to burn a lot to take a lead position or be content to sit wide.

Spped Gifted can find itself in the same position having to run wide until they go up the side.  Road to Rock and Heart of Dreams to get the ideal run behind the pace coming from the 1 and 3 gates, So You Think, Nom Du Jeu (needs it wet to have an impact) all settling well.  Black Piranha and Zipping to race off the pace after the jump with Whobegotyou and El Segundo taking up the rear positions from their wide gates.

This is where I think the story of the race will be told.  Looking back where Heart of Dreams has beaten Whobehotyou is when Heart of Dreams has had the inner gate and Whobegotyou the outside gate.  It seems to be whenever the other one has to race back, due to the wide gate, they give the other runner to much of a start.  We can see this repeated in the Par Lap, the Underwood and Yalumba.  In the Yalumba, they both jumped from inner barriers, Heart of Dreams did get to far back and was taking distance off Whobegotyou at the finish.

I also don’t think Whobegotyou can take on the sprint over the required Cox Plate, normally the sprint is on for 400m in most races, but at the Valley they will start putting the presure on at the 1000m, for Whobegotyou to make a move he’ll ahve to coming wide around the famous Moonee Valley home bend or have to sit behind the runners and hope for a rails run.  I don’t think Whobegotyou or Oliver will be looking for a rails run and will be wide and fading coming to the line.  in contrast Heart of Dreams will have an inside run the length of the race and has just a good a kick as WhoBegotyou, cover less distance, the only concern I have is how fast Sir Slick will be moving back through the field, take care not to get collected as it shoots to the back of the field.

Another reason I’ll put my dollars on Heart of Dreams is seeing Vigor come home in the Caulfield, Vigor won the Makybe Diva over 1600m, with Heart of Dreams 2 lengths away (with zero luck) 5th.  As per my comments on the Caulfeild Cup, if Typoon Tracy wins, get on Vigor for the Caulfield Cup, Vigor bobbed up for 3rd, paying a nice $6 the place.  There is some form around that race, and Heart of Dreams has either been at the heels of Whobegotyou or beaten it.

So our selections:

1 – Heart of Dreams
2 – Road to Rock
3 – Whobegotyou
4 – Speed Gifted

In the Schweppes Stakes we also like No 7 Mic Mac.  he was tightened late in the race and would have finished better then the 5th, a wni over Whobegotyou and a close 2nd to the same horse, only query is back to 1200, but has a 4 from 5 record at the distance.