As most of you would already be aware, Septimus is the new Melbourne Cup favourite after winning by 13 lengths in the Irish St Leger on the weekend. Now it looks really impressive, a huge 13 lengths win, no other horse was really even in the screen when Septimus ‘walked’ across the line.
Septimus didn’t walk across the line as it had the time to do so, or because the Jockey Seamus Heffernan was busy saluting the cheering crowd. Septimus was walking across the line becuase it was stuffed, really struggling to run out the 2816 metres. Horses in the Melbourne Cup do not walk across the line, they are pushed and punished all the way, a true staying event where those with the petrol left in the tank are storming home, just like Efficient last year, just like Delta Blues the year before and just like Makybe Diva did year after year, busting through and sprinting over the line while the others only watch.
How does Septimus stack up against other leading foreign raiders that have come out in the past? Well, first lets simply look at the times clocked for horses that came out for this race from the Leger
Year Winner Time
2008 Septimus 3.11.97 (? in the Melbourne Cup)
2007 Yeats 3.03.40 (7th in the Melbourne Cup)
2004 Vinne Roe 3.03.90 (2th in the Melbourne Cup) * note came 3rd in 2005 Irish & 8th in the Cup
2002 Vinne Roe 2.59.00 (4th in the Melbourne Cup)
2000 Artic Owl 3.02.20 (5th in the Melbourne Cup) But come on! Does anyone recall this horse at all?
1996 Oscar Schindler 2.59.10 (15th in the Melbourne Cup)
1994 Vintage Crop 3.07.30 (7th in the Melbourne Cup) Also came in 95 and was 3rd
1993 Vintage Crop 3.06.70 (1st in the Melbourne Cup)
FFS, that is as far as I am going back 15 years to the mighty Vintage Crop, would you put Septimus in the same category of Vintage Crop? Lets just remind ourselves of Vintage Crop.
“The win of Vintage Crop in 1993 saw the Cup taken out by a horse brought here from Ireland with one purpose, to win our Cup. Trained by Dermott Weld the horse had lost 16 kgs in traveling to Australia. He had no lead up events to the Cup. Another more favoured English horse Drum Taps was the talk of the media leaving Vintage Crop virtually unwanted. With little known about Vintage Crop except some good Irish form and with rain affecting the track, he was sent out 16/1. Travelling just better than midfield most of the race, jockey Michael Kinane made his move at the famous 600m mark. With the big field fanning wide on the corner and some horses not handling the conditions, plenty of space opened up for the Irish horse. At the 350m mark Vintage Crop began to really move into the race and at the 200 metre mark was looking to challenge the leader. Reaching the lead 150 metres out the post he ran away from the Gai Waterhouse trained Te Akau Nick to win by 3 lengths. The training feat of Dermott Weld can not be underestimated. The horse’s victory was the first sign that our prize money was now attracting some of the best horses in the world. The time had come for Australians to be prepared for more foreign victories in our big races. Vintage Crop’s subsequent 3rd in the 1996 Cup was sensational considering the trouble in running and proved that 1993 was no one hit wonder in ability.”
The conditions were classed as soft for the Irish this year, which is a typical of that part of the world, so how does a horse that runs 8 seconds, essentailly 150m slower then the other horses that have won the Leger and come to Australia get promoted to favourite? That fact that is was running against terrible, terrible opposition. It would be like having Phar Lap run in a class 6 at Wyong!
Lets also mention the weight Septimus will be carrying, 58.5kgs that’s huge, if you are looking for some value from foreign horses, then check out Mad Rush, will come in under the radar with no weight and look to steal the Melbourne Cup.
So, other then that…all I’ve got is…”come on, come on, are you serious!” Some punters have to much money to waste.
Finally a free copy of my upcoming ebook, “The Race That Stops A Nation” for the person who can tell the best Melbourne Cup Story. An extra $10 bucks if it includes Artic Owl! Just leave a comment
September 19th, 2008 at 1:07 am
good points, but you must admit if it wasnt favourite after that win it would have been heavily backed to atleast equal favourite by punters.
i think the TAB has gone nuts with a few prices. Master o’reily ran last in 2007 melb cup and is ($21), while zipping ran 4th the last 2 years and is ($31). while guyno ($151) went straight past its to perth rivals 1st up in melb, lords ransom ($51), and cats fun ($71).
I think they have efficient and tuesday joy at the right prices though.
September 19th, 2008 at 3:04 am
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September 20th, 2008 at 7:19 am
Hi Kenny,
Yeah I know, of course if an overseas horse is going to win by 13 lengths then the punters are all going to jump on and bring the odds right in on it, but I am happy to be laying it. I have been getting on Zipping on betfair for odds of $80-$100, zipping has started his campaigns well again this year coming wide etc and finishing off well, so if he gets a start he won’t be $100’s! I don’t know much about guyno, but am also keeping an eye out for Lords Ransom.
So far given you are the only real post, you should be getting a copy of the ebook! Let me know your details. Drop me a line at admin@themelbournecupguide.com
September 27th, 2008 at 3:32 am
you have obviously done your research into septimus. but i think your point about the horse walking across the line in the irish ledger because he was tired is rubbish. he walked across the line because it had the whole field beat… heffernan didnt even push the horse never mind draw his whip. most of o briens horses always seem to be struggling 4-5 furlongs from home yet most of them always stay on and find more yet septimus didnt even have to be pushed along in a very good group 1 field. septimus is the class horse in the race and i cannot see it being beaten. and with probably the leading jockey in the world this year as his pilot it makes it even more certain for me. as an irishman who has also lived in australia and followed your fine horses there i would strongly advise to put the house on it. i understand the failures of yeats etc etc but septimus is the real deal. as for o brien its not a case of if he trains a winner of this fine race – its a case of when and my bet is that septimus will be the one. good luck
October 2nd, 2008 at 9:46 am
Nice confidence albert, I will stick with Septimus, especially at the juicey 70/1 that some dope offered earlier this year on betfair.
I also think ‘Cups King’ Bart has another MCup in him. Keep an eye out for Viewed and Moatize. You can have any odds on Moatize at this minute. Get it now and lay it off in 4 weeks.
October 2nd, 2008 at 8:09 pm
Am a bit late to the party, but I Couldn’t agree more with Septimus being a genuine false favourite for the Cup this year.I hadn’t done a look at the time but that confirms what I thought, that it wasn’t much of a form race. Mad Rush a much better foreign horse. I am not entirely sure if I would want to be on Efficient either at this point – that is a lot of weight.
Zipping, Littorio, Viewed and Maybe Better are the ones I want at this point.
October 19th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
I want to try and win a free e-book.
My best story revolves around last year.
I had done approximately 200 hours of work to come up with a “fool proof” system to determine the Melbourne Cup winner. For a 16 year old, this was a lot of work.
After the barrier draw on Saturday night, I plugged my horses into the system. I came up with a ratings special, and also the best horse to lay. I was so excited, because I felt sure that I was going to make a fortune to celebrate turning 17.
Come Melbourne Cup day, I put my bets on. A heap to win on Tungsten Strike, my ratings special, and I laid Efficient for a good price, my special to lay.
Of course, come 3:04pm on November 6 last year, I had egg on my face and was extremely disappointed.
For me, it beats my other great Melbourne Cup stories, including faking an illness while at school in Year 5 (2001) in order to watch the Melbourne Cup, winning my first ever bet on Might and Power (1997) or running a sweep in a christian school when Makybe Diva won her first Cup (2003).
I turn 18 in two days time, and while I am sitting my HSC exams at the moment (I am a Sydneysider), I finish the day before the Cup.
Therefore I have decided I am going to fly down to Melbourne for the Cup. I already have my tickets booked for the Hill Stand, and I am sure it will be a good day.
As for my tips, it is hard to look past Caulfield Cup form, and Mad Rush turned in an absolutely spectacular run yesterday. The runs of Viewed and Boundless were much better than they looked, and I can’t go past Nom du Jeu.
Outside of the Caulfield Cup, I think Light Vision could run a bit of a race, as could Honolulu.
They are the horses I am looking for at the moment.
October 21st, 2008 at 11:30 pm
I just googled “septimus wont win melbourne cup” and there u were…hahaha
I honestly cannot believe the mules that are following Septimus, it is a joke, I dont even think he will be in the top 3 or 5…
Im not going to rave why because I dont have too…anyone who wants to see how “great” Septimus is then go to http://www.attheraces.com and watch his replays, he has won something like 8 of his 11 or 12 starts and they are pathetic races. Small fields, weak fields, relaxing walk in the park gallops and he dosnt even impress me in the way he wins them, when I saw him win the St Leger he just galloped down the straight like a big ompaloompa about to fall over and he looked crap…Efficient will sitt him on his ass and I will stand by this till the end of the race when Efficient pulls up in 1st…goodnyte…