All The Good will need a miricle to make the Melbourne Cup field Tuesday 4th November, with trainer Saeed Bin Suroor reporting that there was no improvement on it’s foreleg leg this morning at Sandown.

At the moment my top 4 for the Melbourne Cup is:

All The Good
Profound Beauty
Gollopin
Littorio

Previously, it was:

All The Good
Sirmione
Profound Beauty
Littorio

If All The Good comes out as expected and with the Saab Quality still to be run, we are looking at

Profound Beauty
Gollopin
Littorio
Boundless

This will more then likely be my top four, I have rated Profound Beauty since it came out a G.Boss got on. Gollopin has been consistant in it’s runs and more importantly times, 18 starts for 8 wins and I think at $26 /$6 is great value. Boundless is has posted some good runs and is a great rough hope,

But the one that I really like at the odds is Littorio who has really come under the radar I think from it’s 5th in the Caulfield Cup. Everyone has been talking about Mad Rush and the way it finished, which was impressive, but Oliver sat back had a rails run and raced for luck through the middle. Littorio was 2 wide most of the race and 3-4 wide at the turn going around the likes of Ice Chariot, and still came home strongly, doing all the hard work.

Littorio is in form and a top quality horse, it has beaten Weekend Hussler, anyone recall this horse. People were talking about it taking all three major Spring races, Cox and both Cups, but was found out that it could not stay. But Littorio has proven to be able to stay, winning at 2000m, and 5th in the Caulfield Cup. It has also had a 3rd in the Australian Derby over 2400m which was won by …Nom Du Jeu, the current melbournecupguide.com readers choice.

There used to be a theory that the Melbourne Cup horse had to race on the Saturday, Derby Day, but has not really held true over the last number of years. Well we’ll get a look at Littorio this weekend racing in the Mackinnon, the last to race on the Saturday and win was Brew in 2000. It finished 2nd to Yippyio (Who then finished 2nd in the Melbourne Cup) in the Moonee Valley Cup, Brew qualified for the Melbourne Cup by winning the The Dalgety on Derby Day.

So again my top 4, each way Gollopin and Boundless, something on Profound Beauty to cover, but most of my hard earned will be on Littorio.

Profound Beauty
Gollopin
Littorio
Boundless

One of the main issues we have with the international horses is getting a reading of the form line, how well they run, and their performances. Given that Septimus, Profound Beauty and Honolulu are not running before the Melbourne Cup it makes it even harder. We have seen how good Mad Rush and All The Good measure with ATG winning the Caulfield Cup, and Mad Rush storming home for 4th.

Thankfully, we now have a little ‘ol thing called the internet and those clever guys at You Tube please find below a massive video posting of some international runners.

These are thanks to our friends at We’ll have a Bowl and Aussie Punting Portal

Please note: We apologise in advance for the terrible, terrible UK race callers.

2008 Newburgh Handicap, All The Good

Auckland Cup Prize Lady

2008 Challenge Stakes, Profound Beauty

2008 Ballyroan Stakes, Profound beauty

2007 Doncaster Cup, Septimus

2008 Queen Alexandra Stakes, Honolulu

2008 Doncaster Cup, Honolulu

Bauer today booked his spot in the Melbourne Cup with an impressive win in the Group 3 $200,000 2406m Geelong Cup, Bauer beat home Moatize, Magic Instinct and the pre-race favouriate Light Vision.

Bauer is now into $24’s on betfair, you could have got $90 just 3 short weeks ago and into $15 on the NSW TAB, yes I got $90’s

So what does this tell us besides that Australia has basically zero staying talent?  Well, to point out the obvious, that the Cup will be heading overseas!

I mentioned earlier that I’d put up my current top four based on my method to tip Cup winners (well more recently Cup places) and here is it in order for who will win the Melbourne Cup in 2008

1. All The Good
2. Sirmione
3. Profound Beauty
4. Littorio

This of course could change with a number of key races to come, Sirmione will I think run very well in the Cox Plate this weekend at value and there are a number of other Melbourne Cup horses running, such as Zipping, so he could end up in this list, but it would not change to much from this

Bauer’s Geelong Cup win has it in 5th on my rankings

Reply of the Geelong Cup

All The Good has been hit with a 2kg penalty for the 3200m Melbourne Cup set for 4th November 2008, taking it’s weight up to 55kgs and now becomes the first Northern Hemisphere horse to attempt the Caulfield / Melbourne Cup double. You can read more here at Racenet

Interesting article on the status of Septimus here again at racenet,. Don’t agree with it myself, I still think Septimus will be a massive failure in the Melboure Cup.

One of the most successful Melbourne Cup jockey’s, Glen Boss has picked up a ride on the Dermot Weld trained Profound Beauty. A lightly raced 4 year old filly, having 10 starts 3 wins and 5 placings and has won at 2000m, 2400m and 2800m. It’s last win was in the Challenge Stakes over 2800m in July and it’s last run was a 3rd was in the Ballyroan Stakes G3 over 2400m. Seems to be a quality stayer and might be one to watch, lightly weighted at 51.5kgs, especially if Boss has decided to get on.

Godolphin finally have something to cheer about down under with All The Good winning the Caulfield Cup at 50-1. I was thinking all week that this was not going to be a race for the favouriates and that an outsider had a chance at taking this one out. I was super keen on Ice Chariot and Mad Rush as hopes but just pick the wrong guys. But having said that, Mad Rush by far and above anything else was finishing the best of any horse including the winner, a 2800 metre race and he storms home.

So the result was All The Good, Nom de Jeu and Barbaricus with Mad Rush for forth. Now I really face a delima as my system that you can get in the guide will have All The Good as the best foreign horse but I am totally hung up on Mad Rush after the Caulfield Cup run.

Ice Chariot I think was out classed or maybe even picked the wrong horse to follow into the race and then didn’t have enough when the go buttons needed to be pressed. You can see from the video below that at about the 600m mark Littorio comes to the outside but does not quite go at that stage and fades a bit before coming home for 5th, but if it had enough to keep going Ice Chariot was ready to follow but they both kind of stalled at the 400-600 mark with nothing really coming. Ice Chariot was still grinding away but has no turn of speed whereas Littorio kicked

Over the next few days, while sitting here in Tasmania over looking Constitution Dock I will put together my top four horses as it currently stands for the Melbourne Cup and we’ll see ow things stack up. The important thing to keep in mind is not to get caught up in all this and think about some horses outside of this race, the likes of Efficient, Zipping etc are still out there.

Otherwise, the Caulfield Cup has just confirmed everything that we knew about Weekend Hussler and some people did not want to believe. Weekend Hussler is a great 1600 metre runner, perhaps the best and should stick with that. Horses like Desert War, knew their place and dominated the EPSOM and that distance, I don’t think we’ll see Weekend Hussler in the Cox or Melbourne Cup and should be spelled to tackle more appropriate races in the Auntum like the Doncaster.

Here it is…The 2008 Caulfield Cup