One of the big days has arrived, the Caulfield Cup. Up a little early this morning as I am heading to Tasmania this morning so wanted to ensure that I had a good look at the Caulfield Cup happenings before heading off. I was also attempting to resolve an issue where the left hand side bar was not displaying for Internet Explorer users, but that seems to have resolved itself. Let me know if it comes back.
The great news is that we’ll have great weather in Melbourne towards 30 degrees for the race today. Also I noticed this morning that my roughie, Ice Chariot has moved from $51 to $39 this morning…here comes the money
I also came across a few links that you might be interested in for your racing today from Racing and Sports
The below is an article from Racenet that I thought you would all be interested in
Guillotine To Win Cup – Hussler, Littorio a risk
By Sean Bartholomew
I have laid Guillotine at Racing Odds to win almost $1m in the Caulfield Cup, through a series of bets in the last few weeks, with question marks over his ability to make it into the field.
Now that he has qualified we’ll be running for cover at Racing Odds as with its postage stamp weight of 51.5kg, and getting out to the 2400m journey (he is a half brother to Melbourne Cup and Derby winner Efficient after all!) I think he is a fantastic chance to take out the Cup at 9.00 despite his wide draw.
Saturday looms as a fantastic betting day across the 10 race card, with the time honoured Caulfield Cup the feature.
The Caulfield Cup has of recent times dropped off in standard, and become somewhat of a lead-up race for the Melbourne Cup as many trainers avoid the race with their horses to ensure they don’t receive a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup (think Zipping, Efficient and Tuesday Joy prior to her bleeding attack), as the first Tuesday in November is the holy grail.
While I concede that Guillotine is terrific value, the other horse at a bit of a price which I’d suggest punters have a go at is Maldivian. At the $17 quote I certainly think he can run a cheeky race each-way. In all 5 runs this prep he has hit the lead in the straight, only to be run down. I just feel with the step up to 2400m, that the tempo won’t be as solid as it has been in his lead up runs at WFA over shorter trips, and as such will leave him with a bit more of a kick as he approaches the final furlong. And $17 certainly seems a juicy price considering he was being offered up at $2.50 in last year’s Caulfield Cup.
As for the rest I think this is a race to bet around the favourites.
Weekend Hussler is a HUGE risk at 2400m, after dropping out badly last time at his first try at 2000m, albeit with a suspect ride. And for all the plaudits of Littorio’s last start victory, he did have the absolute perfect run, letting Weekend Hussler take him into the race, and peeling off his back once they hit the straight. Together with his strike rate of 2 wins from 14 starts, he is a genuine risk, as I can see him running on late, but perhaps once the others have bolted.
For those Kiwi’s out there, if you want to back Red Ruler and Boundless, back them at Racing Odds as we’ll be happy to bet top odds on those two as they make their first Australian appearance this preparation in the high octane atmosphere of a Caulfield Cup.
For anyone that has missed it, Caulfield Cup Barrier Draw. Weekend Hussler jumping from 11 could be problematic, but worse for Master O’Reilly from 13 and Maldivian from 18, very bad for a horse that likes to get forward, maybe this is the change it had to have to start hitting the line.
My two picks for rough hopes – Mad Rush, no favours from 17, but Ice Chariot to jump from 2 is great, will get back and hug the rails before swinging out and hit the line…odds are still nice and juciy…
1 Weekend Hussler (Ross McDonald) B Rawiller 57.0 11
2 Maldivian (Mark Kavanagh) M Rodd 56.5 18
3 Master O’Reilly (Danny O’Brien) V Duric 56.5 13
4 Fiumicino (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes) 56.0 4
5 Kibbutz (David Hayes) N Rawiller 55.5 5
6 Nom du Jeu (Murray Baker) J Lloyd 55.5 20
7 Mad Rush (Luca Cumani) D Oliver 55.0 17
8 All the Good (Saeed Bin Suroor) K McEvoy 54.5 8
9 Douro Valley (Danny O’Brien) J M Winks 54.5 3
10 Ice Chariot (Ron Maund) G Schofield 54.5 2
11 Viewed (Bart Cummings) B Shinn 54.5 14
12 Littorio (Nigel Blackiston) Steven King 54.0 10
13 Red Ruler (John Sargent) C Brown 54.0 1
14 Boundless (Stephen Mckee) D Dunn 53.5 6
15 Dolphin Jo ( Terry & Karina O’Sullivan) Ms C Lindop 53.0 12
16 Riva San (Peter G Moody) L Nolen 53.0 9
17 Zagreb (David Hayes) G Boss 52.0 7
18 Guillotine (David Hayes) C Williams 51.5 21
EMERGENCIES (In order)
19 Barbaricus (Danny O’Brien) 52.0 22
20 Newport (Paul Perry) P Wells(a) 53.0 16
21 Red Lord (Anthony Cummings) 53.0 19
22 Moatize (Bart Cummings) C D Symons 51.5 15
Just a few items that need addressing from last weekends racing. Dolphin Jo, who ran 5th in the 2007 Melbourne Cup, ran on well in the Winning Edge Presentation over 2400m to win and now sits about about $40 for the Melbourne Cup having hovered around $100+, could be some value given he is proven to run out the 3200m, reply of the race is below to review. Dolphin Jo beat home the Wolverine and Cafalu.
The other major race with Melbourne Cup interest was the Yalumba taken out by last years Caulfield Cup runner up Douro Valley at long odds mind you. I am very disappointed not to be on him as I was all over him this time last year in the lead up to the Caulfield Cup. Douro Valley was just able to keep grinding on over the last 200m to hold off Pompeii Ruler and Guillotine.
Winning Edge Presentation
Yalumba
So this leaves us this weekend with one of the major lead up races, the Caulfield Cup. This has been a good indication of form, while the last winner of the Caulfield Cup / Melbourne Cup Double was Ethereal in 2001 place getters have done well in the Melbourne Cup, the last being Delta Blues in 2006 who finished 2nd in the Caulfield Cup and obviously won the same year, the great mare Makybe Diva did the same in 2004.
List of Caulfeild Cup / Melbourne Cup doubles
Year Winner
1906 Poseidon
1937 The Trump
1939 Rivette
1954 Rising Fast
1962 Even Stevens
1966 Galilee
1982 Gurner’s Lane
1991 Let’s Elope
1995 Doriemus
1997 Might and Power
2001 Ethereal
Skipton won the 1941 Melbourne Cup as a 3YO and then won a division of the 1943 Caulfield Cup.
Rising Fast won the 1955 Caulfield Cup for second time to then run second in the 1955 Melbourne Cup.
Poseidon won a second Caulfield Cup in 1907.
So, this year Littorio is this years favourite to win the Caulfield Cup after upstaging the disappointing Weekend Hussler (2nd Fav) in the Turnbull and is equal $6.50 fav with Efficient and Septimus in the Melbourne Cup.
Personally I am only really interested in this years Caulfield Cup to see Melbourne Cup form but will have a stab at some value taking Ice Chariot who has been running well and hitting the line as the distance goes up for three 3rd placings, currrently, $41 and I’ve been getting $200 on betfair for the Melbourne Cup ($41 on TAB) and the other one I’ll be watching is Mad Rush with Damien Oliver on board, very similar to last years Melbourne Cup 2nd place getter Purple Moon, again, bloody Efficient!
There was a lot of action over the weekend not just here in Australia but around the globe for the build up to the 2008 Melbourne Cup.
Maldivian was a valiant 4th in the Group II Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley on Saturday. Maldivian had to do a lot of work alone to chase down the early leaders Sir Slick and Jungle Ruler before running out of juice and overtaken by Guillotine, Casual Pass and Tears I Cry, the race did nothing more then put cash in the bookies pockets to be honest. This was not a race for Maldivian, not even sure why he ran it myself, maybe the connections thought it was an easy Group 2 win. I think he is being a little over raced and if reports are correct that he’ll be lining up in the Underwood Stakes again Weekend Hussler and Light Fantastic, might be overdone come Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup time.
Tuesday Joy meanwhile firmed in Melbourne Cup betting with a win in the Group II Stocks Stakes flashing home late to snatch it from Devil Moon that was in my mind the best horse in the race. Devil Moon jumped from gate 13 well and pushed up early and had to sit 4 wide the entire circuit and to be just beaten by Tuesday Joy was a great run, I’ll be all over Devil Moon next start if he draws a good gate. And a note for all those thinking of Tuesday Joy repeating Makybe Diva’s Caulfield Cup – Melbourne Cup double, with a win at Moonee Valley, Tuesday Joy could easily start the Cox Plate and then into the Melbourne Cup skipping the Caulfield Cup.
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