I have just finished watching all of Septimus’ races and while I am kind of impressed with his wins, settles well etc, there is pretty much always a very solid pace out front which he may not get next Tuesday. Also while watching the GNER Doncaster Cup 14th September 2007, I noticed a few previous Melbourne Cup runners and they should ring a few bells with you also. Well, maybe not, unless you keep tabs on the horses that finish 20 lengths from the winner of the Melbourne Cup.

GEORDIELAND, 2006 Melbourne Cup, beaten by Delta Blues to the tune of 26.3L and 18th of 23 (yes I also note that Ice Chariot was 2nd last.)

However, that is not the point I actually want to make, Geordieland, then went onto win 26th May 2008, after 7 months off 1st up over 2800m beating home, Honolulu who was 4th also resuming.

Honolulu then wins Alexandra Stakes over 4345m by 1.5L over Distinction….wait for it…then gets pumped over 3200m by 20 lengths to Yeats Goodwood Cup 31st July over the Melbourne Cup distance of 3200…Tungsten Strike 2nd…anyone recall him..only lost by 54lengths to Efficient last year!

DISTINCTION, 2005 Melbourne Cup, beaten by Makybe Diva to the tune of 20L and 19th, but is still running around the UK beating the likes of Honolulu and competing with Septimus.

GB – DONCASTER 14 Sep 2007
GNER DONCASTER CUP (G2) 3600m $182,590 SOT=GF
RaceT=3:48.41

FP Tb Horse wt Jockey (bp) Trainer SP
1st 8 SEPTIMUS 59.0 JOHN MURTAGH (8) A P O’BRIEN 11-10
2nd 5 GEORDIELAND 57.5 T QUEALLY (5) J A OSBORNE 7-1
3rd 6 ALLEGRETTO 57.5 FRANKIE DETTORI (6) SIR MICHAEL STOUTE 7-2
4th 4 DISTINCTION 57.5 OLIVIER PESLIER (4) SIR MICHAEL STOUTE 8-1
5th 2 FINALMENTE 57.5 RICHARD HUGHES (2) N A CALLAGHAN 14-1
6th 1 BALKAN KNIGHT 57.5 TED DURCAN (1) D R C ELSWORTH 12-1
7th 7 LAND ‘N STARS 57.5 PAUL HANAGAN (7) R A FAHEY 50-1
8th 3 BADDAM 57.5 IAN MONGAN (3) M R CHANNON 33-1

Seems to me, that yes, Spetimus can stay, but requires the pace on to make it a true staying event, so I am willing to bet that we’ll see ALESSANDRO VOLTA, out in front ensuing a solid pace to work in the favour of Septimus. Of course pace setting is common place in the UK, but illegal here in Australia, but not something that you can really prove, or at least had to do so.

Also, I have noticed a lot of 3600 – 4200 races, really long races, whereas 3200 is really at the top of our races. Septimus is not winning by big lengths in the 2800-3200 range I am starting to form the opinion Septimus is running against poor quality opposition.

Before I forget, LAND ‘N STARS Melbourne Cup 2006, beaten by Makybe Diva, to the respectable 7.5L but has not won a race since 2006 or really performed, unless you count 3rd in 5 horse races.

Hi fellow Melboune Cup punters and general horse enthusiasts. I have been away for the last few days and have plenty to catch up on so there will be a few posts today.

What we need to start off with is something like an apology to Efficient being named Stayer of the Year in 2007/08. Why you ask? Well Delta Blues was Stayer of the Year in 2006/07 with only the Melbourne Cup win to its name and a 3rd in the Caulfield Cup. So I guess if a horse wins the Melbourne Cup, they automatically get Stayer of the Year honours.

Lets also look at the recent Makybe Diva Stakes on Saturday, while all eyes where on the superstar Weekend Hussler dominating out in front, Efficient ridden at off the pace came home by far the better of the other runners finishing strongly 5 lengths 5th. The other notable horse here was last years Caulfield Cup and Winner Edge winner Master O’rielly finishing 6th but was not coming home anywhere near as strong as Efficient. Watch the race below to see a super star Weekend Hussler and form guide for Efficient.

The 2008 Melbourne Cup is set to run 4th November at Flemington once again this year.  The various betting agencies were very busy putting up their initial markets last week and interestingly they have Efficient as the starting favouriate at $13.  As a long time follower of the Melbourne Cup I am constantly surprised by this, last years winner will almost always head the opening market stakes.

We all know that there have only ever been four horses that have backed up with a win the next year, Archer, Rain Lover, Think Big and Makybe Diva (this great mare won three in a row), so why do betting agencies look to start the prevvious years winner so close or at the top of the odds?  Well the short answer is that plently of people will bet and ‘donate’ their money!

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