G’day Racing Fans,

Just a few items that need addressing from last weekends racing. Dolphin Jo, who ran 5th in the 2007 Melbourne Cup, ran on well in the Winning Edge Presentation over 2400m to win and now sits about about $40 for the Melbourne Cup having hovered around $100+, could be some value given he is proven to run out the 3200m, reply of the race is below to review. Dolphin Jo beat home the Wolverine and Cafalu.

The other major race with Melbourne Cup interest was the Yalumba taken out by last years Caulfield Cup runner up Douro Valley at long odds mind you. I am very disappointed not to be on him as I was all over him this time last year in the lead up to the Caulfield Cup. Douro Valley was just able to keep grinding on over the last 200m to hold off Pompeii Ruler and Guillotine.

Winning Edge Presentation

Yalumba

So this leaves us this weekend with one of the major lead up races, the Caulfield Cup. This has been a good indication of form, while the last winner of the Caulfield Cup / Melbourne Cup Double was Ethereal in 2001 place getters have done well in the Melbourne Cup, the last being Delta Blues in 2006 who finished 2nd in the Caulfield Cup and obviously won the same year, the great mare Makybe Diva did the same in 2004.

List of Caulfeild Cup / Melbourne Cup doubles

Year Winner
1906 Poseidon
1937 The Trump
1939 Rivette
1954 Rising Fast
1962 Even Stevens
1966 Galilee
1982 Gurner’s Lane
1991 Let’s Elope
1995 Doriemus
1997 Might and Power
2001 Ethereal

Skipton won the 1941 Melbourne Cup as a 3YO and then won a division of the 1943 Caulfield Cup.

Rising Fast won the 1955 Caulfield Cup for second time to then run second in the 1955 Melbourne Cup.

Poseidon won a second Caulfield Cup in 1907.

So, this year Littorio is this years favourite to win the Caulfield Cup after upstaging the disappointing Weekend Hussler (2nd Fav) in the Turnbull and is equal $6.50 fav with Efficient and Septimus in the Melbourne Cup.

Personally I am only really interested in this years Caulfield Cup to see Melbourne Cup form but will have a stab at some value taking Ice Chariot who has been running well and hitting the line as the distance goes up for three 3rd placings, currrently, $41 and I’ve been getting $200 on betfair for the Melbourne Cup ($41 on TAB) and the other one I’ll be watching is Mad Rush with Damien Oliver on board, very similar to last years Melbourne Cup 2nd place getter Purple Moon, again, bloody Efficient!

So, the big question, who is going to win?

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Here we go! We are not only 4 weeks away to the Melboure Cup for 2008 and there is a massive days racing ahead of us tomorrow (or today as this is a late post) for the 4th October 2008.

The Turnbull Stakes at Flemington has an opportunity to over-shadow the main even in Sydney from a Melbourne Cup perspecitive, with last years Melbourne Cup winner Efficient taking on other Melbounre Cup hopefuls including, Zipping, Pompeii Ruller, Weekend Hussler (if we all at the same time wish it as a Christmas present), Master O’Rielly, Maldivian, Tuesday Joy and Zaritia. Weekend Hussler by far the favouriate here in this race, but pfft, for the Melbourne Cup who cares really, he won’t win or race.

Just as a note last years winner of the Turnbull was Devil Moon, who went on to claim 5th in the Cox Plate. In the Turnbull last year I am sure that you will note that it beat Melbourne Cup runners, Douro Valley, Zipping, Bluetigeroo, Efficient (who finished 11th! Last out of the Melb Cup runners in the Turnbull, sorry still so bitter) So…what does this mean for the Melbourne Cup? Nothing really, over the last 5 years I have not even used it as a guage for the Cup, so I guess just enjoy the race, but note that a lot of Cup runners are paticipating and one may just catch our eye. And ok, so the last horse to win the Turnbull and Melbourne Cup double was not that long ago in Makybe Diva…but before that you need to go back to 1991 with Let’s Elope. Doriemus was close but won the Melbourne Cup in 1995 and the Turnbull in the following year 1996. So not a lot of joy for Turnbull to Melbourne Cup winners. But if something is a superstar, lets say Tuesday Joy, the ride Beadman is coming back for, trounces Weekend Hussler, I’d be taking note!

Otherwise the main race to be watching is the Metropolitian in Sydney now not a lot to really report here, it was not run last year to the obvious EI reasons and the year before a horse called *cough* Tawqeet was the winner and we all know how his campaigned finished that year. Never-the-less, it will be interesting to see how Fiumicino goes, he has been performing well and getting a lot of miles in th legs for the Cup.

For myself however the horse to watch at the moment will br race #4 Number #1 Ice Chariot, the 2006 QLD Derby winner who I think is flying uner the radar this year and will surprise a lot of people come 4th November….

Otherwise tomorrow, there is a little horse called Samantha Miss running in the Flight Stakes…goes ok…

Check back here tomorrow for race replay’s I will be on it ASAP tomorrow…

Cheers
www.themelbournecupguide.com

Sportsbet in the Northern Territory have taken on their biggest client with the customer placing a $1 million wager on Weekend Hussler to win today’s Underwood Stakes as being reported in today’s SMH.

It would appear as though punters are backing Weekend Hussler only and leaving a lot of the others alone, so expect to see some great odds about for Maldivian, Pompeii Ruler and Light Fantastic.  The main question however has to be the 1800m and can Weekend Hussler dominate like he has up to 1600.  Weekend Hussler is only proven up to 1600m, mind you his biggest win so far this preparation by 2.5 lengths was his last start over 1600 in the Maykbe Diva Stakes.  Light Fantastic seemed to be off his race that day and Maldivian was not there. I think this will be a bigger test, not just for the 1800 but a tougher group across the board to try and beat home.

From our Melbourne Cup perspective, while a lot of the action will take place at the pointy end of the field.  We need to be keeping an eye our for the following runners looking to continue their Melbourne Cup preparations:  Douro Valley, The Fuzz, Viewed, Zarita and Riva San.  None of these runners really have a chance today, altough I would not be surprised if Zarita popped up for a place, but key an eye out for these horses hitting the line.

Also, race 9 at Caulfield has a few Melbourne Cup potential runners in, Dolphin Jo, Zavite and Leica Falcon, come back for posts