I have just finished watching all of Septimus’ races and while I am kind of impressed with his wins, settles well etc, there is pretty much always a very solid pace out front which he may not get next Tuesday. Also while watching the GNER Doncaster Cup 14th September 2007, I noticed a few previous Melbourne Cup runners and they should ring a few bells with you also. Well, maybe not, unless you keep tabs on the horses that finish 20 lengths from the winner of the Melbourne Cup.

GEORDIELAND, 2006 Melbourne Cup, beaten by Delta Blues to the tune of 26.3L and 18th of 23 (yes I also note that Ice Chariot was 2nd last.)

However, that is not the point I actually want to make, Geordieland, then went onto win 26th May 2008, after 7 months off 1st up over 2800m beating home, Honolulu who was 4th also resuming.

Honolulu then wins Alexandra Stakes over 4345m by 1.5L over Distinction….wait for it…then gets pumped over 3200m by 20 lengths to Yeats Goodwood Cup 31st July over the Melbourne Cup distance of 3200…Tungsten Strike 2nd…anyone recall him..only lost by 54lengths to Efficient last year!

DISTINCTION, 2005 Melbourne Cup, beaten by Makybe Diva to the tune of 20L and 19th, but is still running around the UK beating the likes of Honolulu and competing with Septimus.

GB – DONCASTER 14 Sep 2007
GNER DONCASTER CUP (G2) 3600m $182,590 SOT=GF
RaceT=3:48.41

FP Tb Horse wt Jockey (bp) Trainer SP
1st 8 SEPTIMUS 59.0 JOHN MURTAGH (8) A P O’BRIEN 11-10
2nd 5 GEORDIELAND 57.5 T QUEALLY (5) J A OSBORNE 7-1
3rd 6 ALLEGRETTO 57.5 FRANKIE DETTORI (6) SIR MICHAEL STOUTE 7-2
4th 4 DISTINCTION 57.5 OLIVIER PESLIER (4) SIR MICHAEL STOUTE 8-1
5th 2 FINALMENTE 57.5 RICHARD HUGHES (2) N A CALLAGHAN 14-1
6th 1 BALKAN KNIGHT 57.5 TED DURCAN (1) D R C ELSWORTH 12-1
7th 7 LAND ‘N STARS 57.5 PAUL HANAGAN (7) R A FAHEY 50-1
8th 3 BADDAM 57.5 IAN MONGAN (3) M R CHANNON 33-1

Seems to me, that yes, Spetimus can stay, but requires the pace on to make it a true staying event, so I am willing to bet that we’ll see ALESSANDRO VOLTA, out in front ensuing a solid pace to work in the favour of Septimus. Of course pace setting is common place in the UK, but illegal here in Australia, but not something that you can really prove, or at least had to do so.

Also, I have noticed a lot of 3600 – 4200 races, really long races, whereas 3200 is really at the top of our races. Septimus is not winning by big lengths in the 2800-3200 range I am starting to form the opinion Septimus is running against poor quality opposition.

Before I forget, LAND ‘N STARS Melbourne Cup 2006, beaten by Makybe Diva, to the respectable 7.5L but has not won a race since 2006 or really performed, unless you count 3rd in 5 horse races.

Last years winner and one time 2008 Melbourne Cup favouriate Efficient is out of the Melbourne Cup after suffering an injury at trackwork this morning (29th October 2008). I have mixed feelings at this, good as I have been laying the thing on betfair for the last month and negative as this means a quality Australian horse is out and just adds more weight to the possibility that an international is going to win.

Having said that, with Sirmione also out, I’ll 99.9% more then likely be cheering a foreign horse down the Flemington straight just after 3pm 4th November.

Further, what is bad news for all the Efficient fans is good news for the 2008 Geelong Cup winner who now moves closer to ensuring a start in the Cup now into 24th spot on order of entry, with a few to possibly to still be stractched and the Saab Quality winner to possibly come in.

Godolphin finally have something to cheer about down under with All The Good winning the Caulfield Cup at 50-1. I was thinking all week that this was not going to be a race for the favouriates and that an outsider had a chance at taking this one out. I was super keen on Ice Chariot and Mad Rush as hopes but just pick the wrong guys. But having said that, Mad Rush by far and above anything else was finishing the best of any horse including the winner, a 2800 metre race and he storms home.

So the result was All The Good, Nom de Jeu and Barbaricus with Mad Rush for forth. Now I really face a delima as my system that you can get in the guide will have All The Good as the best foreign horse but I am totally hung up on Mad Rush after the Caulfield Cup run.

Ice Chariot I think was out classed or maybe even picked the wrong horse to follow into the race and then didn’t have enough when the go buttons needed to be pressed. You can see from the video below that at about the 600m mark Littorio comes to the outside but does not quite go at that stage and fades a bit before coming home for 5th, but if it had enough to keep going Ice Chariot was ready to follow but they both kind of stalled at the 400-600 mark with nothing really coming. Ice Chariot was still grinding away but has no turn of speed whereas Littorio kicked

Over the next few days, while sitting here in Tasmania over looking Constitution Dock I will put together my top four horses as it currently stands for the Melbourne Cup and we’ll see ow things stack up. The important thing to keep in mind is not to get caught up in all this and think about some horses outside of this race, the likes of Efficient, Zipping etc are still out there.

Otherwise, the Caulfield Cup has just confirmed everything that we knew about Weekend Hussler and some people did not want to believe. Weekend Hussler is a great 1600 metre runner, perhaps the best and should stick with that. Horses like Desert War, knew their place and dominated the EPSOM and that distance, I don’t think we’ll see Weekend Hussler in the Cox or Melbourne Cup and should be spelled to tackle more appropriate races in the Auntum like the Doncaster.

Here it is…The 2008 Caulfield Cup

Here we go! We are not only 4 weeks away to the Melboure Cup for 2008 and there is a massive days racing ahead of us tomorrow (or today as this is a late post) for the 4th October 2008.

The Turnbull Stakes at Flemington has an opportunity to over-shadow the main even in Sydney from a Melbourne Cup perspecitive, with last years Melbourne Cup winner Efficient taking on other Melbounre Cup hopefuls including, Zipping, Pompeii Ruller, Weekend Hussler (if we all at the same time wish it as a Christmas present), Master O’Rielly, Maldivian, Tuesday Joy and Zaritia. Weekend Hussler by far the favouriate here in this race, but pfft, for the Melbourne Cup who cares really, he won’t win or race.

Just as a note last years winner of the Turnbull was Devil Moon, who went on to claim 5th in the Cox Plate. In the Turnbull last year I am sure that you will note that it beat Melbourne Cup runners, Douro Valley, Zipping, Bluetigeroo, Efficient (who finished 11th! Last out of the Melb Cup runners in the Turnbull, sorry still so bitter) So…what does this mean for the Melbourne Cup? Nothing really, over the last 5 years I have not even used it as a guage for the Cup, so I guess just enjoy the race, but note that a lot of Cup runners are paticipating and one may just catch our eye. And ok, so the last horse to win the Turnbull and Melbourne Cup double was not that long ago in Makybe Diva…but before that you need to go back to 1991 with Let’s Elope. Doriemus was close but won the Melbourne Cup in 1995 and the Turnbull in the following year 1996. So not a lot of joy for Turnbull to Melbourne Cup winners. But if something is a superstar, lets say Tuesday Joy, the ride Beadman is coming back for, trounces Weekend Hussler, I’d be taking note!

Otherwise the main race to be watching is the Metropolitian in Sydney now not a lot to really report here, it was not run last year to the obvious EI reasons and the year before a horse called *cough* Tawqeet was the winner and we all know how his campaigned finished that year. Never-the-less, it will be interesting to see how Fiumicino goes, he has been performing well and getting a lot of miles in th legs for the Cup.

For myself however the horse to watch at the moment will br race #4 Number #1 Ice Chariot, the 2006 QLD Derby winner who I think is flying uner the radar this year and will surprise a lot of people come 4th November….

Otherwise tomorrow, there is a little horse called Samantha Miss running in the Flight Stakes…goes ok…

Check back here tomorrow for race replay’s I will be on it ASAP tomorrow…

Cheers
www.themelbournecupguide.com

As most of you would already be aware, Septimus is the new Melbourne Cup favourite after winning by 13 lengths in the Irish St Leger on the weekend.  Now it looks really impressive, a huge 13 lengths win, no other horse was really even in the screen when Septimus ‘walked’ across the line.  

Septimus didn’t walk across the line as it had the time to do so, or because the Jockey Seamus Heffernan was busy saluting the cheering crowd.  Septimus was walking across the line becuase it was stuffed, really struggling to run out the 2816 metres.  Horses in the Melbourne Cup do not walk across the line, they are pushed and punished all the way, a true staying event where those with the petrol left in the tank are storming home, just like Efficient last year, just like Delta Blues the year before and just like Makybe Diva did year after year, busting through and sprinting over the line while the others only watch.

How does Septimus stack up against other leading foreign raiders that have come out in the past?  Well, first lets simply look at the times clocked for horses that came out for this race from the Leger

Year      Winner              Time

2008    Septimus           3.11.97 (? in the Melbourne Cup)
2007    Yeats                 3.03.40 (7th in the Melbourne Cup)
2004    Vinne Roe          3.03.90 (2th in the Melbourne Cup) * note came 3rd in 2005 Irish & 8th in the Cup
2002    Vinne Roe          2.59.00 (4th in the Melbourne Cup)
2000    Artic Owl           3.02.20 (5th in the Melbourne Cup) But come on!  Does anyone recall this horse at all?
1996    Oscar Schindler 2.59.10 (15th in the Melbourne Cup)
1994    Vintage Crop     3.07.30 (7th in the Melbourne Cup) Also came in 95 and was 3rd
1993    Vintage Crop     3.06.70 (1st in the Melbourne Cup)
 

FFS, that is as far as I am going back 15 years to the mighty Vintage Crop, would you put Septimus in the same category of Vintage Crop?  Lets just remind ourselves of Vintage Crop.

“The win of Vintage Crop in 1993 saw the Cup taken out by a horse brought here from Ireland with one purpose, to win our Cup. Trained by Dermott Weld the horse had lost 16 kgs in traveling to Australia. He had no lead up events to the Cup. Another more favoured English horse Drum Taps was the talk of the media leaving Vintage Crop virtually unwanted. With little known about Vintage Crop except some good Irish form and with rain affecting the track, he was sent out 16/1. Travelling just better than midfield most of the race, jockey Michael Kinane made his move at the famous 600m mark. With the big field fanning wide on the corner and some horses not handling the conditions, plenty of space opened up for the Irish horse. At the 350m mark Vintage Crop began to really move into the race and at the 200 metre mark was looking to challenge the leader. Reaching the lead 150 metres out the post he ran away from the Gai Waterhouse trained Te Akau Nick to win by 3 lengths. The training feat of Dermott Weld can not be underestimated. The horse’s victory was the first sign that our prize money was now attracting some of the best horses in the world. The time had come for Australians to be prepared for more foreign victories in our big races. Vintage Crop’s subsequent 3rd in the 1996 Cup was sensational considering the trouble in running and proved that 1993 was no one hit wonder in ability.”

The conditions were classed as soft for the Irish this year, which is a typical of that part of the world, so how does a horse that runs 8 seconds, essentailly 150m slower then the other horses that have won the Leger and come to Australia get promoted to favourite?  That fact that is was running against terrible, terrible opposition.  It would be like having Phar Lap run in a class 6 at Wyong!

Lets also mention the weight Septimus will be carrying, 58.5kgs that’s huge, if you are looking for some value from foreign horses, then check out Mad Rush, will come in under the radar with no weight and look to steal the Melbourne Cup.

So, other then that…all I’ve got is…”come on, come on, are you serious!”  Some punters have to much money to waste.  

Finally a free copy of my upcoming ebook, “The Race That Stops A Nation” for the person who can tell the best Melbourne Cup Story.  An extra $10 bucks if it includes Artic Owl!  Just leave a comment