Moatize gets Bart another runner in the Cup with a classic win in the Saab Quality. Winning Jockey Micahel Rodd said that you should never under estimate the Cups Kings, Bart Cummings and that Moatize will run out the two miles and only carrying 50kgs will be a massive chance to win.

Saab Quality

As for my chance Littorio, I was happy with his run, he was never really going to win and this was simply another hit out before the Cup. Interestingly in the race, Littorio gets 1 hit of the whip from Steven King at the 300m mark and that is all, whereas Newitt on Princess Coup was pounding the crap out of her and Littorio was still moving along well at the line and had a lot left in the tank. I was happy with the $16 on offer Saturday before the race and now will be taking the $31, I still think it is the best chance of the race. Barrier 17 will be no issue it will get back and wait for the straight and power home.

As for the Mackinnon, what a finish, Theseo by the closest of margins.

From, www.racingandsports/racing
Ice Chariot 5th– made some nice ground from the rear, his last 600 of 33.89 seconds is perfectly satisfactory for Tuesday.

Littorio 8th– Got back near last and on face value was average but his last 600 of 33.70 was good enough to suggest that the run in the Mackinnon is best forgotten. (ed – Simply a hit out as per trainer comments before the race in various press)

Mackinnon Stakes Replay

All The Good will need a miricle to make the Melbourne Cup field Tuesday 4th November, with trainer Saeed Bin Suroor reporting that there was no improvement on it’s foreleg leg this morning at Sandown.

At the moment my top 4 for the Melbourne Cup is:

All The Good
Profound Beauty
Gollopin
Littorio

Previously, it was:

All The Good
Sirmione
Profound Beauty
Littorio

If All The Good comes out as expected and with the Saab Quality still to be run, we are looking at

Profound Beauty
Gollopin
Littorio
Boundless

This will more then likely be my top four, I have rated Profound Beauty since it came out a G.Boss got on. Gollopin has been consistant in it’s runs and more importantly times, 18 starts for 8 wins and I think at $26 /$6 is great value. Boundless is has posted some good runs and is a great rough hope,

But the one that I really like at the odds is Littorio who has really come under the radar I think from it’s 5th in the Caulfield Cup. Everyone has been talking about Mad Rush and the way it finished, which was impressive, but Oliver sat back had a rails run and raced for luck through the middle. Littorio was 2 wide most of the race and 3-4 wide at the turn going around the likes of Ice Chariot, and still came home strongly, doing all the hard work.

Littorio is in form and a top quality horse, it has beaten Weekend Hussler, anyone recall this horse. People were talking about it taking all three major Spring races, Cox and both Cups, but was found out that it could not stay. But Littorio has proven to be able to stay, winning at 2000m, and 5th in the Caulfield Cup. It has also had a 3rd in the Australian Derby over 2400m which was won by …Nom Du Jeu, the current melbournecupguide.com readers choice.

There used to be a theory that the Melbourne Cup horse had to race on the Saturday, Derby Day, but has not really held true over the last number of years. Well we’ll get a look at Littorio this weekend racing in the Mackinnon, the last to race on the Saturday and win was Brew in 2000. It finished 2nd to Yippyio (Who then finished 2nd in the Melbourne Cup) in the Moonee Valley Cup, Brew qualified for the Melbourne Cup by winning the The Dalgety on Derby Day.

So again my top 4, each way Gollopin and Boundless, something on Profound Beauty to cover, but most of my hard earned will be on Littorio.

Profound Beauty
Gollopin
Littorio
Boundless

Bauer today booked his spot in the Melbourne Cup with an impressive win in the Group 3 $200,000 2406m Geelong Cup, Bauer beat home Moatize, Magic Instinct and the pre-race favouriate Light Vision.

Bauer is now into $24’s on betfair, you could have got $90 just 3 short weeks ago and into $15 on the NSW TAB, yes I got $90’s

So what does this tell us besides that Australia has basically zero staying talent?  Well, to point out the obvious, that the Cup will be heading overseas!

I mentioned earlier that I’d put up my current top four based on my method to tip Cup winners (well more recently Cup places) and here is it in order for who will win the Melbourne Cup in 2008

1. All The Good
2. Sirmione
3. Profound Beauty
4. Littorio

This of course could change with a number of key races to come, Sirmione will I think run very well in the Cox Plate this weekend at value and there are a number of other Melbourne Cup horses running, such as Zipping, so he could end up in this list, but it would not change to much from this

Bauer’s Geelong Cup win has it in 5th on my rankings

Reply of the Geelong Cup

Godolphin finally have something to cheer about down under with All The Good winning the Caulfield Cup at 50-1. I was thinking all week that this was not going to be a race for the favouriates and that an outsider had a chance at taking this one out. I was super keen on Ice Chariot and Mad Rush as hopes but just pick the wrong guys. But having said that, Mad Rush by far and above anything else was finishing the best of any horse including the winner, a 2800 metre race and he storms home.

So the result was All The Good, Nom de Jeu and Barbaricus with Mad Rush for forth. Now I really face a delima as my system that you can get in the guide will have All The Good as the best foreign horse but I am totally hung up on Mad Rush after the Caulfield Cup run.

Ice Chariot I think was out classed or maybe even picked the wrong horse to follow into the race and then didn’t have enough when the go buttons needed to be pressed. You can see from the video below that at about the 600m mark Littorio comes to the outside but does not quite go at that stage and fades a bit before coming home for 5th, but if it had enough to keep going Ice Chariot was ready to follow but they both kind of stalled at the 400-600 mark with nothing really coming. Ice Chariot was still grinding away but has no turn of speed whereas Littorio kicked

Over the next few days, while sitting here in Tasmania over looking Constitution Dock I will put together my top four horses as it currently stands for the Melbourne Cup and we’ll see ow things stack up. The important thing to keep in mind is not to get caught up in all this and think about some horses outside of this race, the likes of Efficient, Zipping etc are still out there.

Otherwise, the Caulfield Cup has just confirmed everything that we knew about Weekend Hussler and some people did not want to believe. Weekend Hussler is a great 1600 metre runner, perhaps the best and should stick with that. Horses like Desert War, knew their place and dominated the EPSOM and that distance, I don’t think we’ll see Weekend Hussler in the Cox or Melbourne Cup and should be spelled to tackle more appropriate races in the Auntum like the Doncaster.

Here it is…The 2008 Caulfield Cup

The below is an article from Racenet that I thought you would all be interested in

Guillotine To Win Cup – Hussler, Littorio a risk
By Sean Bartholomew

I have laid Guillotine at Racing Odds to win almost $1m in the Caulfield Cup, through a series of bets in the last few weeks, with question marks over his ability to make it into the field.

Now that he has qualified we’ll be running for cover at Racing Odds as with its postage stamp weight of 51.5kg, and getting out to the 2400m journey (he is a half brother to Melbourne Cup and Derby winner Efficient after all!) I think he is a fantastic chance to take out the Cup at 9.00 despite his wide draw.
Saturday looms as a fantastic betting day across the 10 race card, with the time honoured Caulfield Cup the feature.

The Caulfield Cup has of recent times dropped off in standard, and become somewhat of a lead-up race for the Melbourne Cup as many trainers avoid the race with their horses to ensure they don’t receive a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup (think Zipping, Efficient and Tuesday Joy prior to her bleeding attack), as the first Tuesday in November is the holy grail.

While I concede that Guillotine is terrific value, the other horse at a bit of a price which I’d suggest punters have a go at is Maldivian. At the $17 quote I certainly think he can run a cheeky race each-way. In all 5 runs this prep he has hit the lead in the straight, only to be run down. I just feel with the step up to 2400m, that the tempo won’t be as solid as it has been in his lead up runs at WFA over shorter trips, and as such will leave him with a bit more of a kick as he approaches the final furlong. And $17 certainly seems a juicy price considering he was being offered up at $2.50 in last year’s Caulfield Cup.

As for the rest I think this is a race to bet around the favourites.

Weekend Hussler is a HUGE risk at 2400m, after dropping out badly last time at his first try at 2000m, albeit with a suspect ride. And for all the plaudits of Littorio’s last start victory, he did have the absolute perfect run, letting Weekend Hussler take him into the race, and peeling off his back once they hit the straight. Together with his strike rate of 2 wins from 14 starts, he is a genuine risk, as I can see him running on late, but perhaps once the others have bolted.

For those Kiwi’s out there, if you want to back Red Ruler and Boundless, back them at Racing Odds as we’ll be happy to bet top odds on those two as they make their first Australian appearance this preparation in the high octane atmosphere of a Caulfield Cup.