Well here we are Melbourne Cup eve, we’ve studied the form and looked at the best and worst, one of these 24 horses will win the 2009 Melbourne Cup.  But who will it be?  The nation seems divided between the Cups King and 2008 Melbourne Cup winner Viewed and the fairytale story of Alcopop, both veying for favouritism at $5.50.

This year we have looked a little deeper and have completed a number of ’suggested selection methods’ not just the traditional www.themelbournecupguide.com method, which has seen us in recent years select Purple Moon (2nd) in 07, Pop Rock (2nd) in 06 ,  On a Jeune (2rd) in 05, Zazzman (3rd) in 04 and Makybe Diva (1st) in 03.  Our worst ever year as 2008 with Profound Beauty finishing 5th, we were very disaapointed that it didn’t make it back this year.

So, onto the selections, we’ll be throwing up a few methods with their various selections and you can choose which one makes the most sense to you.

The first and easiest is the www.themelbournecupguide.com method, for an explanation, simply subscribe and get our ebook via the sign-up on the right.  We’ve selected:

1. Lecia Ding
2. Alcopop
3. Zavite
4. Warringah

The Punters Plan

We probably know that out of the 24 runners we can perhaps rule a line through 10-12 of them straight away, with the Punters Plan we are looking to take advantage of ‘mug money’ that is invested on Cup’s Day, that is take money out of the pool from the once a year punter through quinella’s and trifecta’s.  What we can to do is come down to 4 very good horses that have form and are able to stay.  How to use these selections.  Take 1 & 2 in a quinella to beat 1, 2, 3 & 4 and then take 3 & 4 to beat 1, 2, 3 & 4 and then box all four in a trifecta.  First the selections so you can skip the method if you like.

1. Alcopop
2. Daffodil
3. Shocking
4. Lecia Ding

Method, what you do is

1 – Eliminate every horse over 20-1 from Monday’s market
2 – Eliminate any horse that has failed in run in the first 5 over 3200 metres, ignoring any that have are first up at 3200
3 – Take out any horse that has not run 1-4 in 2400m or longer races in Melbourne Oct/Nov
4 – Take out any 3 year olds or horses 7 or older
5 – Elminate horses with 20% or less, if you have more then four horses after then, eliminate in order from the worst % until you have your 4.

If we look at this method, what has it provided?  Well, four very good chances that are in form, given probably 2nd favouriate in Alcopop (keeping in mind fav’s have a average history) and mid market runner of 10-1 in Shocking after a great run in the Lexus and then two value chances that have a habit of bobbing up in Daffodil and Lecia Ding.

Interestingly the www.themelbournecupguide.com chooses two of these also….

Next we have The Stayers Plan

Quite simply, we are looking for the best stayers, as the saying goes, “Stayers, stay”.  This method is quite strictso you are looking at win/place bets here or for horses to include in multiples.  The selections.

1. Viewed
2. Roman Emperor

Rules:

1 – Must have run 1-5 in Caulfield Cup OR won a major (G1-3) race in Australia las 12 months
2 – Leading trainer
3- Weight of at least 52kgs
4 – Under 16-1
5 – If track is wet, must have won 2400m on heavy track
6 – If it is a previous Melbourne Cup racer, must have run top 8

Multiples Plan

Here we are looking to stick with the best, horses that are running well, that have the best rider onboard and can stay in a race.  You would use these selections in exotic betting.  Selections.

1. Viewed
2. Roman Emperor
3. Daffodil
4. Shocking
5. Changingoftheguard
6. Lecia Ding

1 – Select an entrant that ran 1-5 in last years Melbourne Cup
2 – Add any horse riddern by a top jockey (simply look at the jockey premierships and take the top 5 from NSW and VIC)
3 – Add horses that are suited to Flemington, that is have a good track record.  Like 5 2-1-1 etc that is 5 starts, 2 wins, 1 2nd and 1 3rd at Flemington etc

Then

1 – Delete any horse that has not won for 12 months
2 – Delete any horse 30-1 and above
3 – Delete any horse below 4/1 (Viewed on Monday just makes this)
4 – Back the remainder above!
And lastly, The Stakes Plan, that is horses that have run in WFA races, like the Memsie, Turnbull and Underwood etc.  There is a rich history of horses that have done well in these races as a hit out going into win Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, they are generally won by out and out sprinters, but stayers who are returning for a tilt of November glory are often seen here.  For exmaple, if we look at the Memise, Chelsmford and Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes we see our Caulfield Cup 1, 2 & 3.  Yes while Zipping was last, Viewed and Roman Emperor were very stong.  Anyway, something to investiage next yeear.  Selections:

1. Viewed
2. Roman Emperor
3. Master O’ Reilly
4. C’Est La Guerre

Happy Punting and Enjoy the 2009 Melbourne Cup

Bart Cummings has begun his quest for a 13th Melbourne Cup confirming last years winner Viewed and AJC Derby winner Roman Emperor in Sydney undertaking light trackwork after the post Autumn carnival spells. The last AJC Derby winner to kick on and win the Melbourne Cup as a four year old was Phar Lap in 1930.

In other Melbourne Cup news, it appears that the fall-out of EI from 2007 will continue to keep Japanses horses away from the Melbourne Cup, which for the locals is probably a good thing with the way Deltra Blues and Pop Rock put everyone to the sword in 2006. At least the likes of Viewed, Efficient and Tuesday Joy will be able to continue their punishment of those from the UK, one way to ensure the Cup stays down-under.

And finally for those in New Zealand, it looks like Cambridge is looking to set itself as New Zealand’s offical Melbourne Cup region with plans to host NZ’s large, most public Melbourne Cup celebration this year. Why Cambridge you ask? Well, it has been the home of 14 Melbourne Cup winners, with eight having an association with Cambridge Stud. So if you are in NZ and want to embrace the Melbourne Cup on the first Tuesday in November then Cambridge is your place, almost as good as being there. For more information visit, The First Tuesday Trust.

Bart Cummings has followed up his 2008 Melbourne Cup win with viewed to take another major Group 1 victory, his 252nd, taking the AJC Australia Deryby with Roman Emperor with Jim Cassidy on board and breaks a 10 year Group 1 Sydney drought for Bart.

Roman Emperor started from the wide gate of 16 and was 3 wide down the straight for the first time before settling in  on pace and holding off the late challengers in Harris Tweed and Predetory Pricer who outside of the winner was the run of the race coming from well back and held up for a clear run at the 200m mark.

Cummings indicated that Roman Emperor would head to the paddock for a spell before plotting a run in the 2009 Melbourne Cup.  The last horse to win the AJC Derby and Melbourne Cup was Hall Mark in 1993.

On a betting note, the on course market closed at 121%!  Never feel sorry for a bookmaker at those percentages!

2009 AJC Australian Derby Race Reply

Tuesday Joy took out the $300,000 G1 Chipping Norton Stakes 1600m 7th March 2009, Tuesday Joy was a firm favouriate for the race and was ridden well by Brown just off the pace in 3-4th possie before coming out on the straight to win.  I think Corey even rated it having said of his ride “I gave her the peach”

Tuesday Joy won in front of Vision & Power and then Gallant Tess for 3rd.  Of note was the late run of the 2008 Melbourne Cup winner Viewed for 4th, was coming on strong.  Given Tuesday Joy set to head to Dubai, Viewed looks like a good horse to follow for the BMW.