As most of you would already be aware, Septimus is the new Melbourne Cup favourite after winning by 13 lengths in the Irish St Leger on the weekend.  Now it looks really impressive, a huge 13 lengths win, no other horse was really even in the screen when Septimus ‘walked’ across the line.  

Septimus didn’t walk across the line as it had the time to do so, or because the Jockey Seamus Heffernan was busy saluting the cheering crowd.  Septimus was walking across the line becuase it was stuffed, really struggling to run out the 2816 metres.  Horses in the Melbourne Cup do not walk across the line, they are pushed and punished all the way, a true staying event where those with the petrol left in the tank are storming home, just like Efficient last year, just like Delta Blues the year before and just like Makybe Diva did year after year, busting through and sprinting over the line while the others only watch.

How does Septimus stack up against other leading foreign raiders that have come out in the past?  Well, first lets simply look at the times clocked for horses that came out for this race from the Leger

Year      Winner              Time

2008    Septimus           3.11.97 (? in the Melbourne Cup)
2007    Yeats                 3.03.40 (7th in the Melbourne Cup)
2004    Vinne Roe          3.03.90 (2th in the Melbourne Cup) * note came 3rd in 2005 Irish & 8th in the Cup
2002    Vinne Roe          2.59.00 (4th in the Melbourne Cup)
2000    Artic Owl           3.02.20 (5th in the Melbourne Cup) But come on!  Does anyone recall this horse at all?
1996    Oscar Schindler 2.59.10 (15th in the Melbourne Cup)
1994    Vintage Crop     3.07.30 (7th in the Melbourne Cup) Also came in 95 and was 3rd
1993    Vintage Crop     3.06.70 (1st in the Melbourne Cup)
 

FFS, that is as far as I am going back 15 years to the mighty Vintage Crop, would you put Septimus in the same category of Vintage Crop?  Lets just remind ourselves of Vintage Crop.

“The win of Vintage Crop in 1993 saw the Cup taken out by a horse brought here from Ireland with one purpose, to win our Cup. Trained by Dermott Weld the horse had lost 16 kgs in traveling to Australia. He had no lead up events to the Cup. Another more favoured English horse Drum Taps was the talk of the media leaving Vintage Crop virtually unwanted. With little known about Vintage Crop except some good Irish form and with rain affecting the track, he was sent out 16/1. Travelling just better than midfield most of the race, jockey Michael Kinane made his move at the famous 600m mark. With the big field fanning wide on the corner and some horses not handling the conditions, plenty of space opened up for the Irish horse. At the 350m mark Vintage Crop began to really move into the race and at the 200 metre mark was looking to challenge the leader. Reaching the lead 150 metres out the post he ran away from the Gai Waterhouse trained Te Akau Nick to win by 3 lengths. The training feat of Dermott Weld can not be underestimated. The horse’s victory was the first sign that our prize money was now attracting some of the best horses in the world. The time had come for Australians to be prepared for more foreign victories in our big races. Vintage Crop’s subsequent 3rd in the 1996 Cup was sensational considering the trouble in running and proved that 1993 was no one hit wonder in ability.”

The conditions were classed as soft for the Irish this year, which is a typical of that part of the world, so how does a horse that runs 8 seconds, essentailly 150m slower then the other horses that have won the Leger and come to Australia get promoted to favourite?  That fact that is was running against terrible, terrible opposition.  It would be like having Phar Lap run in a class 6 at Wyong!

Lets also mention the weight Septimus will be carrying, 58.5kgs that’s huge, if you are looking for some value from foreign horses, then check out Mad Rush, will come in under the radar with no weight and look to steal the Melbourne Cup.

So, other then that…all I’ve got is…”come on, come on, are you serious!”  Some punters have to much money to waste.  

Finally a free copy of my upcoming ebook, “The Race That Stops A Nation” for the person who can tell the best Melbourne Cup Story.  An extra $10 bucks if it includes Artic Owl!  Just leave a comment